Expert picks and best bets: Where's the value at UFC and PFL? (2024)

Rising men's flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira looks to extend his unbeaten streak to 16 in a row when he takes on Alex Perez in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Taira (15-0), unranked by ESPN, could climb into the Top 10 with a win over the No. 7-ranked Perez. Taira has finished three of his last four opponents. Perez (25-8) ended a three-fight losing streak in April with a second-round knockout win over Matheus Nicolau.

There will also be MMA action on Thursday night as the PFL returns for the second half of the 2024 regular season (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN+) with heavyweights and women's flyweights in action. The card at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, will be headlined by Valentin Moldavsky facing Linton Vassell.

Brett Okamoto spoke to CSA Gym MMA coach Kirian Fitzgibbons to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets he likes on this weekend's cards.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Men's flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira

Kirian Ftizgibbons, CSA Gym MMA coach

How Perez wins: Despite facing an undefeated fighter, Perez is likely feeling confident after getting a knockout win against Nicolau on short notice. I don't know if I like back-to-back short-notice fights for a guy who had lost three in a row before his last win. I would have liked him to have a full camp to prepare for a specific opponent. Perez believes he's the better striker here, and I believe he's right. He has to keep the fight standing and anticipate the pressure from Taira. That means utilizing the low calf kick, working his jab and showing uppercuts and knees up the middle. Keep those feet moving, keep the combinations super short and stay away from the fence. Perez is not a horrible grappler, but the favorability in this fight shifts dramatically once it hits the floor.

How Taira wins: Taira has not fought the level of competition that Perez has, but he's 5-0 in the UFC, facing the best fighters in the world. He is a smooth transitional grappler. His takedown efficiency is lower than Perez's at just 41%, but he's so good once he gets you where he wants you. He's averaging nearly 2.5 submission attempts per fight, whereas Perez is averaging one. Taira is an active grappler and he's big -- he will have a five-inch reach advantage, meaning Perez has to move forward to find his chin. Any time Perez extends his combinations to more than two strikes, Taira should use that forward momentum to take Perez down.

X factor: Perez's power and preparation time. He can catch Taira at any moment and put him out. That's a real possibility. But short preparation time has to be considered as well. Taira is exceptionally good at what he does, so facing him on lesser notice is a greater challenge.

Prediction: Taira by submission.

Betting analysis

Parker: Taira to win (-195). Perez will need to land early and fend off the grappling of Taira. However, I don't see it happening. Although Perez looked great against Nicolau, I believe Taira is the real deal. He carries power in his hands and is levels above most in the grappling department. Look for Taira to execute his jiu-jitsu skills early and often and get another submission victory.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the UFC card

Men's flyweight: Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson

Almabayev to win (-650). Johnson will have a tough task ahead of him in Almabayev. Half of Johnson's eight career losses have come by submission, and he's fighting a submission specialist. Unless Johnson knocks Almabayev down early, which is unlikely, look for Almabayev to get the fight to the floor and work his ground game to stay undefeated.

Men's flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van

Ulanbekov to win (-225). Ulanbekov could establish himself as a potential title contender if he can get past Van. Ulanbekov is a well-rounded fighter, but his edge here is his wrestling. Van is extremely durable and good on the feet, but he has been taken down and held down by lesser grapplers than Ulanbekov. Ulanbekov is currently a 2-to-1 favorite, so if you don't want to pay the higher price for the moneyline, then take him to win inside the distance.

Men's flyweight: Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness

Maness to win inside the distance. Flick had a comeback submission victory over Malcolm Gordon in his last fight to end a two-fight losing streak. Unfortunately for Flick, Maness is a stylistic nightmare of a matchup for him. Maness is better everywhere and he should be able to make quick work of Flick. Expect Maness to pressure with his striking early, and if it hits the ground, Maness has an arsenal of submissions.

Parker's best bets for 2024 PFL Regular Season: Heavyweights and Women's Flyweights

Heavyweight: Valentin Moldavsky vs. Linton Vassell

Moldavsky to win (-320). This is a trilogy fight between Moldavsky and Vassell, with each owning a win over the other. If Vassell wants to make the PFL playoffs, he needs a first-round finish, and I don't see that happening. Vassell was finished in his last fight against Denis Goltsov, while Moldavsky had a flawless victory over Ante Delija. Expect Moldavsky to fend off Vassell's wrestling early and potentially get a finish in the second or third round to cement his top seed heading into the playoffs.

Heavyweight: Denis Goltsov vs. Thiago Santos

Goltsov to win inside the distance. As much as we love Santos, this is a terrible matchup for him. Not only is this a bad matchup, but he's also going up in weight to take this fight on short notice. Look for Goltsov to take Santos down early and utilize his massive grappling advantage. Santos offers zero submissions off his back and will be trying to survive once the fight hits the floor. Goltsov will just have to avoid the early power of Santos; otherwise, he should get this done with relative ease.

Women's flyweight: Liz Carmouche vs. Kana Watanabe

Carmouche to win (-380). In a rematch from their days in Bellator, both Carmouche and Watanabe will need a finish to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs. In their first outing, Carmouche finished Watanabe in the first round. I think Carmouche gets the win here; however, if it's a finish, I predict it comes in the later rounds. Carmouche is heavily favored, so feel free to add her as a leg of your PFL parlay.